Are we on the eve of the next World War? By Aleksandra Rebic
April 4, 2008
There’s always the watershed moment. That moment that guarantees war in the future and it becomes just a matter of time before it happens. No war is ever caused by the obvious act that triggers it. The Sarajevo bullet fired on June 28, 1914 didn’t cause World War I. Hitler invading Poland on September 1, 1939 didn’t cause World War II.
Because wars are about taking care of "unfinished business", we are faced with the prospect of a third world war. If that comes, the independence of Kosovo will be the watershed moment. Pandora’s box, despite all the warnings issued, has been opened in the Balkans. Whatever may happen to trigger that war if it comes, its precursor will be found in the establishment of the Republic of Kosova as the worlds "newest nation", of that I am sure. It is now up to the leaders of the great powers to make sure that this destiny is never fulfilled. In the coming months, beginning in April of 2008, the leaders will be meeting and talking things over. They will be negotiating and planning and compromising. They will be drawing lines in the sand. They will be making decisions that will affect the future of all their minions. In doing so in these modern times, these leaders cannot, and must not, ignore history, for it is the most reliable predictor of the future. What’s past is never past. Especially in the Balkans.
Signing of the San Stefano Peace Treaty
"Should anything serious happen in the Balkans, and the Serbs follow a policy we do not like, we shall simply strangle Serbia," declared Austro-Hungarian emperor Franz Joseph I to the German ambassador in Vienna in January of 1901. Thus, an empire of 50 million people was threatening a state of little more than 3 million. Now, more than 100 years later, the European Union (EU) is issuing the same warnings to Serbia should she follow a policy it does not like with regards to Kosovo. Her sacred Kosovo.
Isolation, or worse, the EU warns, whether implicitly or directly, will be her fate and since more than 50 percent of Serbia’s trade at the present time is with the countries of the EU, she would be economically strangled. Economic strangulation is not the only prospect that faces Serbia should she exercise her right over territory that was legally hers. Military consequences would loom, just as they always have. Military consequences are the common denominator in the watershed moments that lead to war.
Watershed moment number one: 130 years ago the Congress of Berlin was held in the summer of 1878. The great powers of Austria, Germany and Great Britain didn’t like the Treaty of San Stefano that had been forged in March of that year following Russia’s victorious war with Turkey. Turkey’s Ottoman Empire had enjoyed ruling over its minions for centuries, and this was the empire that in 1878 controlled the Balkans. The San Stefano Treaty would have effectively ended the control of the Ottoman Empire over the Balkans and increased Russian influence over that area. Because this was unacceptable to the British, the Germans, and the Austrians, they demanded a revision of the agreement, threatening to use military force if necessary. Russia was not prepared for another war. As a result, the Congress of Berlin was convened.
This Congress that commenced in Berlin on June 13, 1878 was attended by the major European powers of the time. Germany, Austria-Hungary and Great Britain proposed that Autria-Hungary should occupy the provinces of Bosnia-Hercegovina, making it clear that Serbia must not be allowed to lay claim to those provinces which had been under Turkish occupation for centuries. All had vested interests in not allowing Serbia to lay claim to anything that was rightfully hers and to prevent Serbs scattered throughout the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian Empires to unite. At this meeting in Berlin the British prime minister, Disraeli, issued the following warning: "If the Congress leaves the two provinces in the same state of affairs in which they are at the moment, one would witness the appearance of the domination of the Slav race, a race which is little disposed to do justice to others."
This was the prime minister of a country which would only some years later form the first concentration camp in history into which they would haul 120,000 women and children of Boer farmers, of which 20,000 would die of neglect and hunger. This concentration camp was established in South Africa, however it would later be copied by the Austro-Hungarians who would haul 150,000 Serbs into such a camp. From the British and the Austrians, Adolf Hitler would learn how to handle those who were "undesirable."
At this Congress of 1878, with the Treaty of Berlin, Austria-Hungary was given the mandate to occupy Bosnia and Hercegovina. Russia, intimidated by the western nations, was not able to do anything about it. Austria-Hungary would follow through by annexing the two provinces in 1908, and Russia, who had engaged in yet another war, this time a destructive one with Japan in 1904, was again in no position to help the Serbs, her Slav brothers in the Balkans. With that annexation the hatred between the Germanic (Teutonic) and Slav races intensified. It was just a matter of time before the great, all consuming war that the great powers had already made plans for, would come to fruition.
The Serbs were determined to shake off the Austro-Hungarian stranglehold over their people just as they had finally shaken off the Turkish. They wanted nothing more than any other peoples of the world had striven for. But that was unacceptable to the powers that ruled Europe. When the Serbs rebelled in the summer of 1914, Austria-Hungary exploited the perfect excuse to begin the war they wanted and the Serbs would be the convenient scapegoat.
Congress of Berlin painting by Anton von WernerWorld War One began with Austria attacking Serbia with the full verbal and written promise of Germany that she would defend Austria if Russia attacked her. The Germans felt comfortable giving that promise because they were thoroughly convinced that Austria would smash Serbia quickly before Russia or anyone else could react. But it didn’t happen that way. Russia did react this time and so did others. Four years of war was the result, the likes of which had never been seen by the world before. This war would change everything, literally everything.
As a result of that war, empires and dynasties were swept away, splitting into new countries, and there would come to be many more of them than there were in 1914. Many of these would harbor a grudge against the great powers of Europe who had colonized them previously. Some of these grudges would manifest themselves into the separatist, illegal and terrorist activity that we are now dealing with at the beginning of the 21st century and which are likely to haunt us for years to come. Out of that activity, new, artificial countries are being created, regardless of whether they are viable or self-sustainable. Nation building under such circumstances does not bode well for peaceful coexistence in the world.
Watershed moment number two: The entire decade of the 1930s was one instance of appeasement after another with which the great powers enabled Adolf Hitler to throw the world into the Second World War, a war the likes of which the world had never seen, once again. This one would be even more destructive than the first. If one had to pick a single moment, mine would be Hitler’s invasion of the Rhineland in 1936. France did not react, nor did the other European powers. Hitler, who could have been stopped dead in his tracks permanently, because the German army was still weak at that time, learned to his amusement that Germany, once a beaten land, was now well on her way to fulfilling her destiny with the help of the very European nations she intended to conquer. The other European powers, namely Britain and France, did not act, though they were militarily powerful enough to do so. Only a few years later, they would have no choice but to act and at such a cost.
Serbs would be drawn into that war for they had the audacity to stand up the Nazis on March 27, 1941. They rejected a pact with Hitler and Hitler responded with a bombing campaign that commenced on April 6th and a subsequent invasion, occupation, and dismemberment of Yugoslavia. Why does this sound so familiar? Because it is.
We have now come to what I believe is watershed moment number three. A Pandora’s box has been opened in Kosovo even though many warnings, for many different reasons, were issued prior to Kosovo’s declaration of independence on February 17, 2008. Just as Zeus warned Pandora not to open the box but she did anyway, the leaders of nations were warned not to encourage Kosovo to break from Serbia, but some did anyway. Though only a little time has passed since then, I suspect that regrets are being harbored. Are we now only to wait for the consequences to manifest themselves? No, we must not wait. We cannot naively hope that any tensions that have resulted from the establishment of the Albanian Moslem "Republic of Kosova" will pass with time.
It is up to the leaders to now be true leaders and to reverse the mistake they have made. They must.
Here are just some points of the many points that should be considered by anyone evaluating the current situation in the Balkans to see their way forward.
Regardless of what phony ’"humanitarian" pretenses are used to justify military action, a primary reason for war is economic. One essential element of the drive to the First World War was the Berlin-Baghdad rail line, which the German Kaiser dreamed about to expand his empire. This essential rail line was to go through the German-friendly countries of Austria, Bulgaria and Turkey, but 175 miles of it was to run through Serbia which was not under Germany’s sphere of influences and alliances. Serbia either had to be made friendly or be conquered. Hitler intended to fulfill the Kaiser’s dream as part of his agenda for conquering the world in the 20th Century. He would come awfully close to succeeding.
Today, it is not the Berlin-Baghdad rail line but the oil and gas lines that go through Serbian territory which are being coveted, not just by the Europeans, but by the United States as well. One is to come through southern Europe and Serbia and is to be controlled by the Western Powers, and the other one is to come from the northeast and Russia through Serbia and is to be controlled by Russia. Russia has already established a plan for reserves in Bachka (a province in northern Serbia) and Russia’s new president, Dmitry Medvedev, has been in Belgrade to firm up the plan. It appears that the western nations, particularly the United States, have established an independent Kosovo for the same purpose.
Albanian sources have provided "confirmation" of such intentions. On March 3, 2008, Shqiptar Oseku issued the following commentary:
"… Albania and its seaport in Vlore are the final destination of a giant oil pipeline, which will transport the Caspian oil from the Caucasus to the West. This project, which is being carried out by the US company, AMBO [Albania, Macedonia, Bulgaria Oil], began in 1993 and the final contracts were signed in 2008. According to the US Department of Energy, this is the most important US project in Southeastern Europe in the 21st century." Source: BBC Monitoring Europe (Political) - March 5, 2008, Text of report by Pristina-based weekly Self-Determination Movement website, on 3 March, 2008.
The Americans have participated in establishing an illegal state in the Balkans to serve their own purposes. Artificially creating such a state sets a precedent, and not a positive one. Other ethnic and national groups are watching and learning.
Are the Americans going to support these other groups when they start asking for or demanding their own independent states? Or are the Americans going to let that be a European or Asian or Canadian or Middle Eastern problem? Kosovo, argued the American policymakers, was and is a "unique" case that required special consideration.
We will see how many other groups will come to see themselves as having a "unique case for special consideration" and just how that’s going to be dealt with.
Aleksandra Rebic - Biography email author
Aleksandra Rebic is an American of Serbian heritage who was born in Chicago, IL, the daughter of parents who immigrated to the United States and made America their home. She is a graduate of Northwestern University in Evanston, IL. with a Bachelor of Science degree in Communication Studies from the School of Speech.
Aleksandra has been an aspiring author and student of history all of her life. While employed at a successful data processing company that has both national and international clientele, she dedicates much of her free time to the freelance writing that she hopes will make a difference. The topics she focuses on cover a wide range, from the simple to the complex, and her hope is that through her writings she moves and inspires people to see things from a different perspective than they might be used to.
Aleksandra has been published in both Serbian and American newspapers and on the internet, and is co-author, with her father, of the book Dragoljub-Draza Mihailovich and the Second World War: The History of a Great Betrayal.
